美聯儲議息會議筆記：通脹別慌利率會降（2...

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美聯儲議息會議筆記：通脹別慌利率會降（2024年3月）

美聯儲議息會議筆記：通脹別慌利率會降（2024年3月）

發表於 2024-03-21 08:26 作者：智堡

來源：智堡

摘要

本次會議，美聯儲保持利率水平不變。
會議公布了新的經濟預測，上調了對本年度的GDP增長預測與通脹預測。
點陣圖變化焦灼，預計2024年降息3次（10位委員），未來兩年的降息次數亦下降，但符合預期。
發布會鮑威爾重申本輪周期利率已經觸頂，確認了在今年啓動降息是合適的。
1月和2月的CPI數據並未改變鮑威爾對去通脹進程的樂觀態度，他強調FOMC本就預期通脹回落不會一帆風順（bumpy）。
對就業市場的強勢表現，鮑威爾顯得“毫無保留”，並強調就業過強不會影響降息決定。
有關長期利率預測近5年內的首次上行，鮑威爾表態“不知道具體水平在哪”但不會像疫情前那么低了。
對於QT Taper，聯儲已經开始討論資產負債表的結構問題，鮑威爾強調了流動性的“分布”問題。
從觀感上看，本次會議幾乎沒有展露出任何的鷹派信號，市場在會議前所擔憂的二次通脹風險並未進入FOMC的視野。
筆者認爲聯儲在开年會議上奠定的“風險管理”和“平衡風險”的姿態在本次會議上出現了bias，淡化了通脹風險，深化了對增長的樂觀預期。
風險資產持續走高，10年期美債收益率衝高回落，美元跌。

聲明原文（僅第一段有可忽略的小幅變化）

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

最近的指標表明經濟活動以穩健的速度擴張。就業增長保持強勁，失業率保持低位。通脹在過去一年有所放緩，但仍然居高不下。

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

委員會致力於實現在長期內充分就業和2%的通脹率。委員會認爲實現就業和通脹目標的風險正在朝着更好的平衡方向發展。經濟前景不確定，委員會對通脹風險保持高度關注。

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

爲了支持其目標，委員會決定將聯邦基金利率的目標區間維持在5.25%至5.5%之間。在考慮對聯邦基金利率目標區間進行任何調整時，委員會將仔細評估最新數據、不斷變化的前景和風險平衡。委員會預計在獲得更大信心，即通脹朝着2%的可持續增長方向發展之前，降低目標區間將不合適。此外，委員會將繼續按照其先前公布的計劃減持國債、機構債務和機構抵押支持證券。委員會堅決致力於將通脹恢復到2%的目標水平。

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

在評估貨幣政策的適當立場時，委員會將繼續監測經濟前景的相關信息。如果出現可能阻礙委員會目標實現的風險，委員會將准備適時調整貨幣政策的立場。委員會的評估將考慮到廣泛的信息，包括勞動力市場狀況、通脹壓力和通脹預期以及金融和國際發展情況。